Are Ghana Treasury bills still worth investing in as interest rates fall?

Ghana’s Treasury bill rates have fallen sharply, reducing the returns received by households and businesses that have traditionally regarded government securities as a relatively secure place to keep surplus money.

At the auction issued on 7 September 2026, the annualised interest-equivalent rates were 4.805% for the 91-day bill, 6.6831% for the 182-day bill and 10.1169% for the 364-day bill, according to the Bank of Ghana.

With Ghana’s annual inflation at 5% in August, the shortest bill now offers an annualised return slightly below inflation. The 182-day and 364-day rates remain above the current inflation rate, but future inflation and the rate available when an investor reinvests will determine the eventual real return.

Treasury bill returns are falling

Treasury bills are short-term government securities issued at a discount to their face value. Instead of receiving periodic interest payments, an investor buys the security below its maturity value and receives the full face value when it matures.

The difference between the purchase price and the amount paid at maturity represents the investor’s income.

Official figures show a clear downward trend.

In August 2025, the monthly average interest-equivalent rates were 10.26% for the 91-day bill, 12.31% for the 182-day bill and 13.11% for the 364-day instrument.

Compared with the rates issued on 7 September 2026, the 91-day rate has fallen by about 5.46 percentage points, the 182-day rate by 5.63 points and the 364-day rate by approximately 2.99 points.

The comparison is between the August 2025 monthly averages and a single auction in September 2026, rather than identical auction dates, but it demonstrates the broader decline in yields.

Rates have continued to decline in recent weeks. Between 24 August and 7 September 2026, the 91-day rate fell from 5.0795% to 4.805%, while the 182-day yield declined from 7.08% to 6.6831%.

The 364-day rate recorded a larger fall, from 11.5929% to 10.1169% over the same period.

What the latest rates mean

The rates quoted by the Bank of Ghana are annualised. This is important because an investor in a 91-day bill does not earn 4.805% over three months.

Using a simple annualised calculation, an investor would earn approximately 1.20% over 91 days if the bill is held to maturity. The corresponding estimated return is about 3.33% over 182 days and 10.09% over 364 days.

Actual proceeds may differ slightly because Treasury bills are issued at a discount and pricing may depend on the accepted auction rate, settlement arrangements, fees and the institution through which the purchase is made.

Investors should request the precise purchase price, maturity value and applicable charges before committing their money.

Does the return beat inflation?

A nominal return is the percentage earned before considering the effect of rising prices.

A real return measures what remains after inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the investor’s money.

Ghana’s annual inflation rate stood at 5% in August 2026, up from 4.6% in July, according to the Ghana Statistical Service.

Measured against that figure, the 91-day bill’s annualised rate of 4.805% is slightly below inflation. If both rates remained unchanged for a year, the investment would produce a marginally negative real return.

The 182-day rate of 6.6831% is about 1.68 percentage points above current inflation before adjusting precisely for compounding. The 364-day rate is

about 5.12 points above inflation.

Using the more precise calculation that accounts for the interaction between returns and inflation, their indicative annualised real returns are approximately:

• 91-day bill: –0.19%

• 182-day bill: 1.60%

• 364-day bill: 4.87%

These are illustrations, not guaranteed outcomes. Inflation can change during the investment period, and a 91-day or 182-day investor who wants to remain invested for a full year will have to reinvest at rates that cannot be known in advance.

What GH¢10,000 could earn

Using the interest-equivalent rates published for September 7 and a simple annualised calculation, GH¢10,000 could produce approximately:

• 91-day bill: GH¢119.80, giving an estimated maturity value of GH¢10,119.80.

• 182-day bill: GH¢333.24, giving an estimated maturity value of GH¢10,333.24.

• 364-day bill: GH¢1,008.92, giving an estimated maturity value of GH¢11,008.92.

The calculations assume the instrument is held to maturity and exclude possible fees.

The 364-day bill produces the largest cash return, but the investor must commit the money for almost a year. The 91-day bill offers quicker access at maturity, but its return is considerably lower.

Why Treasury bill rates are declining

Treasury bill yields do not move in isolation. They are influenced by monetary conditions, inflation expectations, demand at government auctions and the state’s borrowing requirements.

The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee maintained the policy rate at 14% in July 2026. In August 2025, the rate was 25%, showing how substantially monetary conditions have eased over the period.

Lower inflation and policy-rate reductions have been accompanied by falling short-term government yields.

Demand at individual auctions can also influence accepted rates. When investors are prepared to place more money in government securities at lower yields, the government may be able to borrow more cheaply.

However, the information reviewed for this feature does not establish the relative contribution of each factor to the result of the 7 September auction.

The risks investors should consider

Treasury bills are direct short-term obligations of the government and are generally considered lower-risk than many private investment products. That does not make them completely free of risk.

The investor is exposed to the government’s ability to meet its obligations.

There is also inflation risk: even when the investor receives the promised maturity amount, rising prices may erode the real value of the earnings.

Falling rates create reinvestment risk. Someone purchasing a 91-day bill today may receive an even lower rate when the instrument matures and the money is reinvested.

Liquidity also matters. An investor who may need the money before maturity should ask whether the security can be sold or discounted early, how long that process takes and whether it will reduce the expected return.

Fraud is a separate risk. It does not arise from the Treasury bill itself but from dealing with unauthorised people or platforms.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has warned the public against unlicensed investment businesses and advised investors to verify the licensing status of firms offering investment services.

How Treasury bills compare with other investments

Bank fixed deposits may provide a predictable return for a specified period, but their rates and early-withdrawal conditions differ among banks.

Licensed money-market funds generally invest in a portfolio of short-term securities. They may offer easier access to funds, but returns can change and fees may apply.

Government bonds can offer higher yields or periodic interest payments, but they usually have longer maturities and may experience price changes if sold before maturity.

Corporate bonds may offer higher returns than government securities because investors assume the credit risk of the issuing company.

Ordinary savings accounts provide greater access to money but commonly offer lower returns. The most suitable option depends on current rates, fees, risk, duration and the investor’s need for liquidity.

No current, comprehensive and directly comparable set of rates for all these alternatives was established from the official materials reviewed. Investors should therefore obtain quotations from regulated institutions before making comparisons.

Who should still consider Treasury bills?

Treasury bills may remain suitable for investors who prioritise relative security, want to know their maturity value in advance and can leave their money untouched for a defined period.

The 91-day instrument may appeal to someone who values a shorter commitment more than a high return. However, its current annualised yield is marginally below inflation.

The 182-day and 364-day bills currently offer higher annualised rates than inflation. The longer bill provides the strongest indicative real return, but it also requires the longest commitment.

Treasury bills may be less suitable for investors seeking substantial growth, frequent income payments or immediate access to their money.

What investors should check before investing

Before purchasing a Treasury bill, an investor should establish:

• the accepted interest and discount rates;

• the amount payable at purchase;

• the amount due at maturity;

• the maturity date;

• all transaction charges;

• the procedure and cost of accessing the money early;

• whether the institution handling the transaction is properly regulated;

• whether the expected return exceeds inflation.

Investment decisions should reflect the investor’s objectives, tolerance for risk and need for access to cash. General market information is not a substitute for advice based on an individual’s financial circumstances.

The verdict

Ghana Treasury bills can still be worthwhile, but the case is no longer equally strong across all three tenors.

At the September 7 2026 rates, the 91-day bill offers flexibility at maturity but does not currently beat annual inflation on an annualised basis. Its main attraction is therefore short duration rather than growth in purchasing power.

The 182-day bill offers a modest positive margin over current inflation, while the 364-day instrument provides the strongest potential real return of the three.

The answer ultimately depends on what the investor wants. Treasury bills remain a viable option for preserving capital and earning a predictable nominal return, particularly over the longer tenor. But investors seeking higher growth or easier access to their money should compare them carefully with other regulated products.

Sources:

References

Bank of Ghana. (2026). Treasury bill rates. Retrieved 8 September 2026 from:
https://www.bog.gov.gh/treasury-and-the-markets/treasury-bill-rates/

Bank of Ghana. (2026). Monetary Policy Committee decision statement: July 2026. Retrieved from:
https://www.bog.gov.gh/news/mpc-decision-statement-submissions-by-members-july-2026/

Bank of Ghana. (2025). Summary of economic and financial data: September 2025. Retrieved from:
https://www.bog.gov.gh/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Summary-of-Economic-and-Financial-Data-September-2025.pdf

Central Securities Depository Ghana. (2026). Debt securities. Retrieved 8 September 2026 from:
https://csd.com.gh/debt-securities/

Central Securities Depository Ghana. (2026). Services. Retrieved 8 September 2026 from:
https://csd.com.gh/services/

Ghana Statistical Service. (2026). Inflation rate: August 2026. Retrieved from:
https://statsghana.gov.gh/highlights/inflation-rate

Ghana Statistical Service. (2026). Monthly Consumer Price Index: August 2026 release. Retrieved from:
https://statsghana.gov.gh/news-and-events/news/monthly-cpi-august-2026-release

Securities and Exchange Commission Ghana. (2026). Public notice: List of entities operating without a licence. Retrieved from:
https://sec.gov.gh/public-notice-list-of-entities-operating-without-a-license/

Securities and Exchange Commission Ghana. (2025). Warning against unauthorised advertisements on fraudulent investment schemes. Retrieved from:
https://sec.gov.gh/warning-against-unauthorised-advertisements-on-fraudulent-investment-schemes/

Calculation note

The estimated investment returns were calculated as follows:

Estimated return=Amount invested×annualised interest rate×investment period365\text{Estimated return} = \text{Amount invested} \times \text{annualised interest rate} \times \frac{\text{investment period}}{365}

The calculations are illustrative and may differ from the final amount received because of discount pricing, accepted auction rates, institutional charges and settlement arrangements.